I learned about the newest dispute between Serbia and Kosovo in a New York café when I overheard a very animated conversation between a lady who seemed to blame Serbia for World War I (and perhaps World War III?) and the well-dressed maitre d’ who was so excited that he kept on stammering that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia, not recognized by most UN members.
This is quite the analysis, I must say. Some of it made me squirm. It was a bit uncomfortable to read because it honestly posited a very realistic future scenario that no one would benefit from.
In some ways, it was, purposely, I assume, devoid from morality, which to me is a bit concerning, because so many human lives are involved or will be involved in the ramifications of this. I believe that the Kosovo conflict can be the impetus for another conflict. And I do believe given the unstable distribution of power in the world currently, this would leave to an even larger conflict. This world we live in does not need much to erupt further, I am afraid. So... this essay brought no comfort to me and I hope most of it does not materialize. Also, once again some of the assertions, while perhaps technically correct, made me raise an eyebrow. Kurti may be "effective" but he is so as a destabilizer. Maybe the same is true of Vucic too. Also, the assertion that the ethnic cleansing campaign called "Operation Storm" in Croatia which displaced and caused the subsequent misery of thousands of Serbs, made Croatia "more stable", is again technically true (gosh) but so intrinsically wrong to state given the human suffering involved. I feel for all victims of war and I truly hope that the region of the former Yugoslavia will, despite the odds, become more peaceful, not return to a bellicose state.
Dear Anja, it was supposed to be hyper-realistic. We have to look at things the way that politicians look at them. I think they are mostly Machiavellians. And this applies to the better of them: ends justify the means but the violence of the means used should not exceed what is necessary to achieve the objective. (So that is the value-based component; but nothing else). The rest is propaganda. Anyway, you are in NYC, I am here too, would be nice to meet.
Thank you, Branko, for responding. I hear you and I generally (almost always) agree with you and I actually always appreciate your analysis. Yes, I get the "hyper-realistic" tone and as I said you are not wrong.... I also do believe that unlike some politicians who cause these unfortunate scenarios, most of us care about the people involved (you too I am sure).
It would be my honor to meet you. I will be in touch via a more formal method! And sorry if I was a bit "harsh". I respect you and your work. This is a bit personal for me... and I am sure it is for you on some level. Thank you again for always making me think. Anja
There are many problems with this analysis and characterization of the events and actors involved.
Firstly, there is no evidence whatsoever of Kurti's government actively engaging in the displacement of ethnic Serbs from Kosovo. This evokes the false narrative that prevailed in Serbian media during the 1980s about the 'terrorization' and 'systematic displacement' of Kosovo Serbs (à la 'Slučaj Martinović') despite evidence of economic factors being the main driver of Serbian migration (the largest migration of Serbs from Kosovo to Serbia occurred in municipalities where Serbs made up the overwhelming majority, meaning there were no Albanians around to terrorize them out of Kosovo; moreover, Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats tended to migrate from Bosnia to Serbia and Croatia, respectively, during this time as well, i.e. we're dealing with a pull factor underpinned by better employment opportunities, higher wages, etc.).
Secondly, the idea that Kurti has sought to intentionally derail the EU-led negotiations and just obstinately refuse Western demands and lead us to war belies how it was Vucic, not Kurti, who refused to sign the Ohrid Agreement and thereby legally cement it. You also fail to mention how it was the Serbian government that first broke one of the key provisions of the agreement (to not obstruct Kosovo's accession to int'l organizations) by voting against Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe in April, i.e. just a month after the agreement was reached in principle. Like any rational actor, Kurti should be expected and indeed sought to extract the maximum possible - de facto recognition from Serbia - in exchange for a massive concession that has national security ramifications, as evidenced by the shootout in Banjska on September 24.
Vucic's refusal to sign the agreement and his insistence on a sequence of implementation that prioritizes the creation of the ASM at the expense and complete detriment of other provisions inspired little hope (or guarantees) that Serbia would keep its end of the bargain (as demonstrated by its vote against Kosovo's application to become member of the Council of Europe). There's nothing mystical about Kurti's refusal to agree to such a thing - any rational actor would do the same in the face of a bad faith actor, and we do not need to invoke far-fetched theories on warmongering to account for his decisions.
More generally, even if we put aside the (lack of) empirical evidence of ethnic cleansing going on in Kosovo, a mere comparison of the public discourses in Kosovo and Serbia reveal a lot about what you need to know. Kurti frequently delivers speeches in Serbian in an attempt to communicate to Kosovo Serbs that he's their PM, too. In Serbia, meanwhile, the highest ranking officials, much like the government-friendly media, frequently use the pejorative 'siptari' to describe Albanians. And these are not just words (although words matter): discursive dehumanization is symptomatic of real and systematic oppression, such as the Serbian government's continuous attempts to disenfranchise and marginalize the Albanian community in Presevo (see: https://www.mmg.mpg.de/1156996/wp-23-01). There's nothing even remotely similar happening in Kosovo, where local Serbs enjoy some of the most extensive constitutional rights of any ethnic minority in Europe.
In Kurti you have a PM who takes the tenets of liberal democracy seriously; it is telling that mere days after they were taken in by police, four of the six suspects who were arrested for their alleged involvement in the Banjska shootout were released from custody due to lack of evidence. On the other hand, Serbian officials continue to contradict each other on whether they knew or did not know about activities of Radoicic et al.
It would be better to situate or locate Vucic's motives in his domestic travails - he's been facing antigovernmental protests since May of this year - and Kosovo's role as a sublime object of Serb nationalism. To permanently settle the Kosovo question is to forgo a perennial source of int'l blackmail and domestic political get-out-jail-free-card. That is the real source of instability.
Thank you, I was very disappointed to read Milanovic rehashing the standard Serbian nationalist line, providing no evidence or sources for his nebulous "they're terrorizing our people" claim, and ignoring the ways that Kosovo Serbs, the Serbian government, and the Kosovo government have all contributed to the increasing tensions in the region. Just imagine the pearl clutching outrage that would result if a group of well-equipped, heavily armed Albanian gunmen shot and killed a Serbian police officer and then barricaded themselves in a mosque from which they continued the shoot out. Do you think a recap of the latest political situation would omit this little detail?
Serbia is actively passivizing addresses of Albanians in the Presheva Valley, basically institutional ethnic cleansing of Albanians, nothing close to that happens in Kosova, but somehow the population is terorized. Branko should have mentioned also that the Serb population in Kosova who tries to integrate into Kosovar institutions are intimidated and receive constantly threats from Belgrade. The Serb minority in Kosova is not some persecuted minority by Kosovar Institutions, it is a minority which has been pushed outside Kosovas institutions by Serbia, to be used for territorial ambitions in the future.
Every tinpot dictator is going to start agitating their neighbors, now that NATO is funneling all of their support into Ukraine, and are running low on many vital munitions and supplies. They can't keep supplying aid, when they don't have it to give, and trying to support wars all over the world only leaves them vulnerable to attack, when they finally do run out of all the things they need to defend themselves. Global war is coming soon, and NATO won't be able to sit back, keeping their own people safe from harm, so get ready for it. Boots on the ground is inevitable, and since most NATO countries have become complacent about their military needs, that means a draft is going to be required to bring troops levels up to where they need to be, and those armies are going to have to be maintained, long after the war is over, assuming nukes aren't deployed, and we all end up dead.
I don't think Serbia will go to war. Having NATO on your side, even moderately so, is a great change. Serbia needs to make it clear that NATO's position on Kosovo and Donbas needs to be consistent, and point out the inconsistencies. If Ukraine can wage a civil war against secessionists, so can Serbia - especially if it rejects its traditional, yet worthless political alliance with Russia, now an isolated, yet still dangerous imperial foe.
While all the stated is true, how can Vučić hope to pull something similar to Milošević when he has spend the last decade completely tying Serbia to Western economies? Serbia cannot survive Western sanctions let alone face NATO.
This is quite the analysis, I must say. Some of it made me squirm. It was a bit uncomfortable to read because it honestly posited a very realistic future scenario that no one would benefit from.
In some ways, it was, purposely, I assume, devoid from morality, which to me is a bit concerning, because so many human lives are involved or will be involved in the ramifications of this. I believe that the Kosovo conflict can be the impetus for another conflict. And I do believe given the unstable distribution of power in the world currently, this would leave to an even larger conflict. This world we live in does not need much to erupt further, I am afraid. So... this essay brought no comfort to me and I hope most of it does not materialize. Also, once again some of the assertions, while perhaps technically correct, made me raise an eyebrow. Kurti may be "effective" but he is so as a destabilizer. Maybe the same is true of Vucic too. Also, the assertion that the ethnic cleansing campaign called "Operation Storm" in Croatia which displaced and caused the subsequent misery of thousands of Serbs, made Croatia "more stable", is again technically true (gosh) but so intrinsically wrong to state given the human suffering involved. I feel for all victims of war and I truly hope that the region of the former Yugoslavia will, despite the odds, become more peaceful, not return to a bellicose state.
Dear Anja, it was supposed to be hyper-realistic. We have to look at things the way that politicians look at them. I think they are mostly Machiavellians. And this applies to the better of them: ends justify the means but the violence of the means used should not exceed what is necessary to achieve the objective. (So that is the value-based component; but nothing else). The rest is propaganda. Anyway, you are in NYC, I am here too, would be nice to meet.
Thank you, Branko, for responding. I hear you and I generally (almost always) agree with you and I actually always appreciate your analysis. Yes, I get the "hyper-realistic" tone and as I said you are not wrong.... I also do believe that unlike some politicians who cause these unfortunate scenarios, most of us care about the people involved (you too I am sure).
It would be my honor to meet you. I will be in touch via a more formal method! And sorry if I was a bit "harsh". I respect you and your work. This is a bit personal for me... and I am sure it is for you on some level. Thank you again for always making me think. Anja
Hyper-realistic? How can exposing your country to sanctions, isolation and, possibly, conflict with Nato be hyper-realistic?
There are many problems with this analysis and characterization of the events and actors involved.
Firstly, there is no evidence whatsoever of Kurti's government actively engaging in the displacement of ethnic Serbs from Kosovo. This evokes the false narrative that prevailed in Serbian media during the 1980s about the 'terrorization' and 'systematic displacement' of Kosovo Serbs (à la 'Slučaj Martinović') despite evidence of economic factors being the main driver of Serbian migration (the largest migration of Serbs from Kosovo to Serbia occurred in municipalities where Serbs made up the overwhelming majority, meaning there were no Albanians around to terrorize them out of Kosovo; moreover, Bosnian Serbs and Bosnian Croats tended to migrate from Bosnia to Serbia and Croatia, respectively, during this time as well, i.e. we're dealing with a pull factor underpinned by better employment opportunities, higher wages, etc.).
Secondly, the idea that Kurti has sought to intentionally derail the EU-led negotiations and just obstinately refuse Western demands and lead us to war belies how it was Vucic, not Kurti, who refused to sign the Ohrid Agreement and thereby legally cement it. You also fail to mention how it was the Serbian government that first broke one of the key provisions of the agreement (to not obstruct Kosovo's accession to int'l organizations) by voting against Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe in April, i.e. just a month after the agreement was reached in principle. Like any rational actor, Kurti should be expected and indeed sought to extract the maximum possible - de facto recognition from Serbia - in exchange for a massive concession that has national security ramifications, as evidenced by the shootout in Banjska on September 24.
Vucic's refusal to sign the agreement and his insistence on a sequence of implementation that prioritizes the creation of the ASM at the expense and complete detriment of other provisions inspired little hope (or guarantees) that Serbia would keep its end of the bargain (as demonstrated by its vote against Kosovo's application to become member of the Council of Europe). There's nothing mystical about Kurti's refusal to agree to such a thing - any rational actor would do the same in the face of a bad faith actor, and we do not need to invoke far-fetched theories on warmongering to account for his decisions.
More generally, even if we put aside the (lack of) empirical evidence of ethnic cleansing going on in Kosovo, a mere comparison of the public discourses in Kosovo and Serbia reveal a lot about what you need to know. Kurti frequently delivers speeches in Serbian in an attempt to communicate to Kosovo Serbs that he's their PM, too. In Serbia, meanwhile, the highest ranking officials, much like the government-friendly media, frequently use the pejorative 'siptari' to describe Albanians. And these are not just words (although words matter): discursive dehumanization is symptomatic of real and systematic oppression, such as the Serbian government's continuous attempts to disenfranchise and marginalize the Albanian community in Presevo (see: https://www.mmg.mpg.de/1156996/wp-23-01). There's nothing even remotely similar happening in Kosovo, where local Serbs enjoy some of the most extensive constitutional rights of any ethnic minority in Europe.
In Kurti you have a PM who takes the tenets of liberal democracy seriously; it is telling that mere days after they were taken in by police, four of the six suspects who were arrested for their alleged involvement in the Banjska shootout were released from custody due to lack of evidence. On the other hand, Serbian officials continue to contradict each other on whether they knew or did not know about activities of Radoicic et al.
It would be better to situate or locate Vucic's motives in his domestic travails - he's been facing antigovernmental protests since May of this year - and Kosovo's role as a sublime object of Serb nationalism. To permanently settle the Kosovo question is to forgo a perennial source of int'l blackmail and domestic political get-out-jail-free-card. That is the real source of instability.
Thank you, I was very disappointed to read Milanovic rehashing the standard Serbian nationalist line, providing no evidence or sources for his nebulous "they're terrorizing our people" claim, and ignoring the ways that Kosovo Serbs, the Serbian government, and the Kosovo government have all contributed to the increasing tensions in the region. Just imagine the pearl clutching outrage that would result if a group of well-equipped, heavily armed Albanian gunmen shot and killed a Serbian police officer and then barricaded themselves in a mosque from which they continued the shoot out. Do you think a recap of the latest political situation would omit this little detail?
Serbia is actively passivizing addresses of Albanians in the Presheva Valley, basically institutional ethnic cleansing of Albanians, nothing close to that happens in Kosova, but somehow the population is terorized. Branko should have mentioned also that the Serb population in Kosova who tries to integrate into Kosovar institutions are intimidated and receive constantly threats from Belgrade. The Serb minority in Kosova is not some persecuted minority by Kosovar Institutions, it is a minority which has been pushed outside Kosovas institutions by Serbia, to be used for territorial ambitions in the future.
Every tinpot dictator is going to start agitating their neighbors, now that NATO is funneling all of their support into Ukraine, and are running low on many vital munitions and supplies. They can't keep supplying aid, when they don't have it to give, and trying to support wars all over the world only leaves them vulnerable to attack, when they finally do run out of all the things they need to defend themselves. Global war is coming soon, and NATO won't be able to sit back, keeping their own people safe from harm, so get ready for it. Boots on the ground is inevitable, and since most NATO countries have become complacent about their military needs, that means a draft is going to be required to bring troops levels up to where they need to be, and those armies are going to have to be maintained, long after the war is over, assuming nukes aren't deployed, and we all end up dead.
CAPTAIN
Truly to speak, and with no addition,
We go to gain a little patch of ground
That hath in it no profit but the name.
To pay five ducats, five, I would not farm it;
Nor will it yield to Norway or the Pole
A ranker rate, should it be sold in fee.
HAMLET
Why, then, the Polack never will defend it.
CAPTAIN
Yes, it is already garrisoned.
HAMLET
Two thousand souls and twenty thousand ducats
Will not debate the question of this straw.
This is th’ impostume of much wealth and peace,
That inward breaks and shows no cause without
Why the man dies.—I humbly thank you, sir
I don't think Serbia will go to war. Having NATO on your side, even moderately so, is a great change. Serbia needs to make it clear that NATO's position on Kosovo and Donbas needs to be consistent, and point out the inconsistencies. If Ukraine can wage a civil war against secessionists, so can Serbia - especially if it rejects its traditional, yet worthless political alliance with Russia, now an isolated, yet still dangerous imperial foe.
While all the stated is true, how can Vučić hope to pull something similar to Milošević when he has spend the last decade completely tying Serbia to Western economies? Serbia cannot survive Western sanctions let alone face NATO.