17 Comments
Oct 13Liked by Branko Milanovic

There will books written long after about what motivated Putin to attack Ukraine. Leonid Ivashov, an objective Soviet General warned about the disastrous consequences of attacking Ukraine. Ivashov's warning was based on ground realities that were quite obvious. How could Putin, supposedly a competent intelligence officer himself, could ignore such obvious clear warnings? Ivashov's letter is a scathing critique of Putin regime; it's model of state, foreign policy and economic policy - all of it becoming a failure.

https://www.eastviewpress.com/on-the-eve-of-war-appeal-of-the-all-russian-officers-assembly-to-the-president-and-citizens-of-the-russian-federation/

Sometimes the truth comes from unlikeliest of sources. Like from sociopath Yevegny Prigozhin. According to his candid admission (around time of his mutiny). Russia is in hands of oligarchy and Kremlin's task is to deliver wealth to these oligarchs.

But Russian oligarchy is cut off from global elites for two reasons. First is that US always excluded Russia from its global security architecture and economic integration after end of cold war. Second is that Russia's oligarchy became further excluded after it was cut off from world due to western sanctions, expropriations and boycott after Crimea's annexation.

So there was combination of two mixtures. First is ambition of Putin for revisionism & foolish militaristic project of eurasian integration. Second is Russian Oligarchy which went along with Putin's project for plunder of Ukraine by capturing it (or so they thought). The Russian people have no power to oppose the policies of ruling elites. And Russian elites are putting them into the meat grinder.

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author

Ivashov letter was very prescient. I remember it although I think I then read only a summary. Plus, Ivashov had impeccable military & patriotic credentials.

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Oct 13Liked by Branko Milanovic

This post fits well as a sequel of the text on Eastern European nationalisms - would be great if the series continues!

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Oct 13Liked by Branko Milanovic

Fascinating, and Berdyaev does feel eerily contemporary. Thank you.

At the end of your essay, you write: "These are things which the contemporizes are not apt to judge well: history can prove that “apocalyptic messianism” has entirely lost its ideological hold on Russia, but, it is not impossible to believe that it is emerging right now under a different ideological form that we cannot fully grasp."

That is true not only of Berdyaev, but of the many other convulsions of thought and practice that are emerging today. Never before in my career have I felt the metaphor of "seeing through a glass darkly" more apt.

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Instead of searching for the social bearers of apocalyptic messianism, it might be more plausible to question Berdyaev's assessments. As for Karaganov's statements and those of similar figures, they should be interpreted as propaganda directed at Western conservative opposition.

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"although it is not clear how Russia by breaking international rules is contributing to them being observed by others"

The Russian construction of the reason for its military opperation is built around international precedent ultimately justified by ICJ as well as on UN Charter s.51.

The Kossovo precedent was used by Russia to recognize the two republics and s.51 was invoqued as supporting the two republics in overcoming the artillery attack launched by Ukraine against the two republics in early February, 2022. Hundreds of buses with women, children, and elderly were moved from the proximity of the frontline back or in Russia due to the Ukrainian bombardments, acknoledged by the OECD observers.

The author here seems to be bathed in western MSM and is not up to date with the actual facts on the ground and the sequence of actions taken by all the actors, and their precise timing.

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Oct 13·edited Oct 13

A sort of long-winded way to statements about Russia "breaking international rules" and threatening to nilly-willy throw nukes around and about. Just in case., if it matters, they don't like it when the "half a million dead children was worth it"-country overthrows the government of a neighbouring country under false pretenses (there was no majority for EU association, s. KIIS November 2013) and have Nato breaking agreements and expanding further eastward to build up on a difficult to defend 2000 km border . Nato has 6.5 times the population and 15 times the military budget of Russia. As Sun Tzu, Machiavelli, Frederick the Great and quite a few others agree: the one who provokes the war is the one who started it. And what are these "international rules" anyway? International law, or the "rules based order" as made up by the US as they go? Right now they are supporting morally and materially a genocide (they only accept the people killed figure from the Gaza authorities because it is ridiculously low; eg. Lancet has some explanations!). There is not much love or respect left for the "golden billion" of this planet.

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What I meant is when Karaganov calls for equality btw the states & the respect of UN rules, he is unable to respond to the statement that Russia has violated these rules by attacking Ukraine. That is totally separate from the so-called "rules-based order" which is really West's way to justify breaking the UN rules, i.e. a "rules-based" order is whatever .is found convenient to uphold at a point in time.

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Failing to understand the dynamics of conflicts is a staple of the western liberal perverted logic of reversing cause and consequences. The Ukraine war did not start with the first russian soldier crossing the border. And the genocide committed by Israel and supported by western powers is not self defense against an act of terror but the consequence of violent imperialist US politics since the end of World War II after Israel turned Gaza for decades into an open air concentration camp. Claiming that nothing of that has anything to do with the US war machine and its ‚Rules Based Order‘ is as hypocritical as it gets. That line of arguing is a textbook example of western double standards.

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Imho berdyaev is a dead end. He is part of the Russian intelligenzia of the 19th century, who, like their European colleagues, produced beautiful intellectual edifices based on next to nothing in reality. Proper sociological studies of Russian population at large in historical context started only in the 30’s, continued since then, and quickly buried all those poetic notions.

To really simplify, Russians supported Bolshevism because it promised and fulfilled their main wish - distribution of land. Later in life for an average Russian got better at such blistering pace, that the land question became moot. Better by moving from the country to the cities, aka industrialisation and urbanisation.

And the ability of Russians to suffer? Easy, life in the country was on par with European experience from the 16th century and earlier (taking crop yields as a basic measure). Europeans simply forgot by the 19-20th century how bad it’s been for them and how much they were willing to suffer in the indies just to escape their existence.

Sorry Branco, I think that rabbit hole doesn’t lead to wonderland

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Sorry if this is slightly off topic (America instead of Russia), but this description of traditional Russian apocalyptic messianism seemed to offer a clue to part of the mental process behind MAGA, which I have struggled to understand.

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The US has its own millenarian tradition that developed in parallel with the Russian, often in dialogue with the same currents of 19th century West European romanticism.

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Agree.

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You asked this.

"Reading Berdyaev today thus necessarily raises the question, What classes are today the supporters of “apocalyptic messianism”, if there is indeed such a vision?"

My answer would be some Very High Net Worth Individuals in the States.

Somebody like Elon Musk and his colonizing Mars dreams. Somebody like Jeff Bezos thinking about living high above earth in a space station.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/20/jeff-bezos-space-flight-billionaires-earth-sinking-ship

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/20/jeff-bezos-space-travel-philosophy-500300

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Hello Branko and all. Please see/share our research and help us improve it if you can. Thank you!

https://michaelatkinson.substack.com/

Sincerely,

Michael

🦖

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It’s possible that few would openly defend apocalyptic messianism, but the idea remains in some kind of collective unconscious that allows Putin to inflict any degree of suffering.

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This seems right, combined with American/global influences & technologies having to do with mass media, propaganda, state building, etc

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